Patrick Williams, TheAHL.com Features Writer
Think of the race to the Calder Cup Playoffs like a weather forecast.
The further out you are, the more difficult accuracy becomes for forecasters. More variables, less certainty.
But with one month to go now in the AHL regular season, the forecast is beginning to come into much better focus.
The North Division, where five teams will qualify for the postseason, has a playoff fight on its hands among the Belleville Senators, Cleveland Monsters and Syracuse Crunch.
Three teams fighting for two Calder Cup Playoff spots. Two points separating fourth place from sixth. And the seventh-place team, the Utica Comets, still lingering in the background.
Amid the typically hectic pace of a March schedule has been a slight break for all three teams. They have all been off since last Saturday before returning to action tonight, when the sprint to the end of the regular season begins in earnest.
Let’s break down where these teams stand going into this weekend.
SYRACUSE (27-19-8-4) – 66 points, fourth place; 14 games remaining (7 home/7 away)
The Crunch get the edge for fourth place on a tiebreaker, with 22 regulation wins to Cleveland’s 19.
Their current four-game winning streak matches their longest this season, and they are 9-4-2-0 since the All-Star break. They visit Lehigh Valley tonight before a home match-up with Rochester on Saturday.
Variables to consider: The Crunch have gone 4-5-1-0 against Utica so far, and the teams still have four meetings to go including a season-ending home-and-home series April 18-19. If Utica can make this a four-team race, that match-up would add even more spice to the teams’ rivalry.
The Crunch sat 29th in the AHL in scoring before netting 17 goals in back-to-back wins over Springfield last weekend, a team record. Conor Sheary broke loose with five points (three goals, two assists) while Logan Brown had a hat trick in Friday’s 9-4 victory and scored again in Saturday’s 8-3 win.
Syracuse has lost a league-high 12 games beyond regulation this season. That means a lot of points have been left on the table. If the Crunch offense has awakened, that could massively shift this race.
Games remaining: Belleville (1), Hershey (1), Laval (1), Lehigh Valley (2), Rochester (3), Toronto (2), Utica (4).
CLEVELAND (28-20-5-5) – 66 points, fifth place; 14 games remaining (6 home/8 away)
Sometimes the schedule toughens up at the most inopportune times.
For the Monsters, that has been three consecutive weekends – six straight games – against division leaders. They were swept at home by Hershey, then dropped two games in Texas. Tonight, they open a two-game set in Laval, the start of a four-game, six-day road swing that takes them to Belleville on Sunday and Wednesday.
But the AHL is about learning to handle pressure, and, well, the Monsters are getting plenty of that. Laval’s Place Bell and its loud, rambunctious fans make for a difficult environment, and the Rocket have been particularly dominant with the AHL’s second-best home record this season (21-7-1-1).
Variables to consider: Jet Greaves has been back and forth between Cleveland and Columbus, earning a start against New Jersey earlier this week. He has shown he can handle high-level intensity, having taken the Monsters to within one game of the Calder Cup Finals last June.
The Blue Jackets are three points out of a playoff spot in the NHL, so the Monsters can’t necessarily count on getting roster help. But rookie defenseman Denton Mateychuk is available for assignment to the AHL; Mateychuk has been a regular on the Columbus blue line since his recall from Cleveland in December.
Cleveland’s remaining strength of schedule (.622) is the toughest in the league, and they finish up with a four-game road trip.
Games remaining: Belleville (2), Grand Rapids (1), Laval (2), Lehigh Valley (1), Rochester (1), Texas (2), Toronto (2), Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (3).
BELLEVILLE (28-21-4-4) – 64 points, sixth place; 15 games remaining (9 home/6 away)
Belleville has forged a gritty, hard-nosed reputation, and a well-deserved one at that.
They took their fight for a playoff spot down to the final weekend at home last season, knocking off Laval in an emotional win at CAA Arena. They then eliminated Toronto in a first-round Battle of Ontario series before giving Cleveland a good fight in the division semifinals. Head coach David Bell’s teams can handle late-season hockey.
The Senators are 8-0-1-0 in their last nine at home, and they will kick off a seven-game homestand on Sunday.
Variables to consider: Head-to-head play is the most efficient method of taking control of the standings. Belleville has that edge in the final month with 12 games remaining against North Division opponents, including two meetings with Cleveland and one with Syracuse.
After instability in net created by injuries and recalls earlier, the Sens have settled into a nice pattern with prospect Leevi Meriläinen and the experienced Malcolm Subban. Meriläinen has also made an impression in Ottawa, going 8-3-1 with a 1.99 GAA, a .925 save percentage and three shutouts in 12 NHL appearances this season.
The long run of home games will lead to a dicey finish, as the Senators play five straight road contests from Apr. 9 to Apr. 18. They also finish their schedule with three straight games against Laval.
Games remaining: Cleveland (2), Laval (3), Lehigh Valley (1), Providence (1), Rochester (3), Springfield (1), Syracuse (1), Toronto (3).
On the American Hockey League beat for two decades, TheAHL.com features writer Patrick Williams also currently covers the league for NHL.com and FloSports and is a regular contributor on SiriusXM NHL Network Radio. He was the recipient of the AHL’s James H. Ellery Memorial Award for his outstanding coverage of the league in 2016.
